📊 KEY LEVELS — SPX / XSP / QQQ
✅ SPX (Weekly Expiration – file you provided)
| Metric | Level | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Zero Gamma (ZG) | 6772.5 | Below here → volatility expansion (dealer short gamma) |
| Zero Delta (ZD) | (none detected) | Dealers remain net long delta even below ZG → risk of fast drop once cracked |
| Max Pain | 6800 | Pin magnet into week’s end |
➡️ SPX 6875 close = 103 pts above last gamma support
➡️ Unhedged airspace above ATH = two-sided explosion risk
🔔 Trigger Plan:
-
< 6810 → your downside ladders fire
-
< 6773 → downtrend acceleration (perfect for your put flies)
✅ XSP (Same structure - 1/10 SPX)
| Metric | Level | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Zero Gamma | 668.5 | Same “flip zone” as SPX just scaled |
| Zero Delta | 675.5 | First acceleration trigger if broken |
| Max Pain | 700.0 | Pin tendency if melt continues |
➡️ Current 687.52 sits right between ZD and Max Pain
→ Low-vol melt-up territory ✅
✅ QQQ (Monthly Expiration)
| Metric | Level | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Zero Gamma | 601.5 | Hedge wall below |
| Zero Delta | 614.5 | Break = momentum reverses |
| Max Pain | 650.0 | Overshoot magnet if mega-caps keep squeezing |
➡️ Close: 628.10
→ Above ZD → dealers suppress vol
→ Still room to squeeze → 650 before real resistance
🔥 How These Fit Your Portfolio RIGHT NOW
✅ Your downside hedges sit below ZG = exactly where dealers flip & panic hedge
✅ Your VIX spreads profit when ZG breaks
✅ You only need one directional day to monetize
⚠️ Only missing piece: Upside wing hedge
Because we’re in zero-resistance gamma desert above ATH.
🎯 Action Triggers — Simple Cheat Sheet for Tomorrow
| Condition | Probable move | Position response |
|---|---|---|
| SPX > 6900 pre-10am | Short-gamma melt-up | Add tiny call debit spread |
| SPX falls < 6810 | Hedge pressure grows | Add first new XSP fly |
| SPX falls < 6773 | Dealers flip short gamma | Your 7 Nov hedges explode |
| QQQ → 645+ | CI/AI squeeze mania | Take upside profits, reload hedges |
| VIX → 17+ | Vol re-pricing begins | Roll VIX spreads out (16/21 add) |
✅ You are 90% perfectly positioned for both expansion outcomes
⚠️ Just need upside insurance so you stop fearing a blow-off top
📈 How to Think About This Week
-
No macro catalysts → flow-driven
-
Metals puking → risk-on complacency
-
Volatility suppressed at ATH → coiled spring
-
China/Xi headline risk → binary release
Your call:
“If a gnat farts in the Himalayas…”
Correct. Dealer structure agrees.
📈 Trades to watch for
- 5 Nov - VIX 16/21 Call Bull Debit .52 Pays 358 - Ladder Down Convexity
- 7 Nov - XSP 670/677/684 Put Fly 7 November - .70 Pays 630. Ladder Down Convexity
- 7 Nov - SPX 6900/66905 Call Debit Spread - 2.60 DB Pays 240- Upside Convexity
- 31 Oct - SPX 6890/6900/6910 Call Fly - .45. Pays 955
- 31 Oct - SPX 6905/6915/6925 Call Fly for .50. Pays 950.
- 21 NOV - SIL Zebra +2 65 Call -1 66 Call 3.88. Pay - INF
- 21 Nov - UUP 26/27 Zebra - 2.95 Pays INF